Mapping Local POIs Part 4: what a difference five years make
Posted by alan_gr on 31 October 2024 in English.In Part 3 I talked about changes in POI data in a small area over a period of two months. Most of those changes were due to mapping activity, rather than anything that happened in the real world over that period. But I’d like to use a similar approach to better understand how the real-world POIs are evolving.
As I mentioned in Part 3, until recently a significant proportion of POIs in this area had never been mapped in OSM. That means there is no point in the past at which OSM data is anywhere close to a complete set of POIs for this area. But we might be able to learn something from the POIs that were mapped some time ago.
I chose to look back 5 years, to August 2019. I guessed that was roughly the point at which the data was most accurate. Most POIs were added in 2017-2018, so while lots of POIs were missing, those existing in 2019 were probably still fairly accurate. This is how those specific POIs evolved over 5 years, ignoring anything newly created over that period:
POI count | as % | |
---|---|---|
no major change | 135 | 57% |
removed | 42 | 18% |
changed POI type | 38 | 16% |
changed name | 22 | 9% |
total | 237 | 100% |
Plotting this on a map doesn’t reveal anything especially interesting, although zooming in does show a curious island of stability along the north side of Calle Ferrándiz. Somehow that row of shops has been almost immune to the changes that affected the rest of the area:
The blue dot in the middle of the street is rather poignant: it is the only public telephone in the 2019 data, not surprisingly nowhere to be found in 2024.
At a more granular level, there was a general decline in the number of clothes shops. Of 15 in the 2019 data, only 5 survived until 2024. At the other extreme are healthcare facilities including pharmacies and dentists: all 15 mapped in 2019 still exist, and 13 of them still have the same name. Otherwise, most types of POI changed at broadly similar rates.
So, 57% of POIs mapped in 2019 were still operating as the same type of POI with the same name five year later. That suggests that 10%-11% of POIs experienced a significant change (closure, change of use, rebranding) each year. In fact the rate may well be higher, as this doesn’t account for locations that changed more than once over the 5 years. I know from memory that these exist (some locations just seem to be “cursed”), but I don’t have any data to quantify this effect.
Of course all this ignores the many POIs that were not mapped until recently. In Part 3 I mentioned that these unmapped POIs were disproportionately located on quiet side streets. I have no idea if these would have increased or reduced the overall rate of change if they had been mapped from the start.
Setting aside all the limitations of the data, this does seems to indicate a fairly manageable rate of change. Now that the data is reasonably complete, and given the lack of space for new construction in this area, I expect relatively few completely new POIs in future. I think I should be able to keep up with an annual rate of change of 10% to 15% - say 40 to 60 data updates each year.
And if I manage to do that, this kind of analysis will become more interesting in future years, as it will reflect real changes rather than irregular bursts of mapping activity.